Bitcoin or playing lottery

I had a debate with my wife, whether it makes more sense, to use excess photovoltaic enegery for solo mining Bitcoin or to sell the energy to market and invest it in playing "Lotto" (the Germany state lottery). Let's calculate!

Germany state lottery

According to Google (I have no clue about Lotto), chances to win 300.000€ are 1:5.000.000 if you buy one Bayernlos for 2€.

Bitcoin mining business Case

We assume the following parameters

• 2€ of Energy
• BTC price 92.000€ (yes, this was the price on the 20th of February 2025).
• Antminer S0 (13TH/s with 1300W)
• Global hash rate 707EH/s = 707,000,000TH/s
• Current Block reward 3.125BTC (exkl. mining fees)
• Block time: 10minutes

Assuming one unit, we have a chance of winning 3.123BTC = 287.000€ of 13:707.000.000.000. This equals 1:54.000.000. So, with a 10 Minute blocktime, we get 6 chances an hour if we spent 1,3kWh. So 1:9.000.000.

But our energy budget is 2€. As we get 0,07€ for every kWh of energy fed in into the grid, we can mine for 2€/0,07€kWh = 28.57kWh. Assuming the 1300W of hour Antminer S9 that will enable us to mine for 22h.

This brings down our chances to win to lottery to 1:409.000.

Summary

It makes 5.000.000/409.000 = 12 times more sense to solo mine Bitcoin!